导语

北京时间2025年12月10日，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）议息会后召开新闻发布会并发表讲话。会议决定将联邦基金利率目标区间下调0.25个百分点至3.50%–3.75%，并启动短期国债购买以维持准备金充裕水平。鲍威尔在讲话中指出，美国经济温和扩张，劳动力市场逐渐缓和。在通胀风险上行与就业下行风险加大的复杂局面下，美联储通过政策调整以平衡双重使命风险，并将政策立场置于中性区间，为后续基于数据决策夯实基础。

以下为杰罗姆·鲍威尔的演讲全文：

Tran of Chair Powell’s Press Conference Opening Statement

December 10, 2025

CHAIR POWELL. Good afternoon. My colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of the American people. Although important federal government data for the past couple of months have yet to be released, available public- and private-sector data suggest that the outlook for employment and inflation has not changed much since our meeting in October. Conditions in the labor market appear to be gradually cooling, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.

鲍威尔主席：下午好。我和我的同事们始终专注于实现美联储的双重使命，即保障充分就业和维持物价稳定，以惠及全体美国人民。尽管过去几个月的部分重要联邦政府数据尚未公布，但现有的公共和私营部门数据显示，自我们10月会议以来，就业和通胀的前景变化不大。劳动力市场状况似乎正在逐渐缓和，通胀则依然处于略高水平。

In support of our goals, and in light of the balance of risks to employment and inflation, today the Federal Open Market Committee decided to lower our policy interest rate by 1/4 percentage point. As a separate matter, we also decided to initiate purchases of shorter-term Treasury securities solely for the purpose of maintaining an ample supply of reserves over time, thus supporting effective control of our policy rate. I will have more to say about monetary policy and its implementation after briefly reviewing economic developments.

为实现我们的目标，同时考虑到就业和通胀风险之间的平衡，今天，联邦公开市场委员会决定将政策利率下调25个基点。另外，我们还决定开始购买短期国债，其唯一目的是在一段时间内保持充分的准备金供应，从而支持我们对政策利率的有效控制。在简要回顾经济发展情况后，我将就货币政策及其执行情况作进一步说明。

Although some key government data have yet to be released, available indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Consumer spending appears to have remained solid, and business fixed investment has continued to expand. In contrast, activity in the housing sector remains weak. The temporary shutdown of the federal government has likely weighed on economic activity in the current quarter, but these effects should be mostly offset by higher growth next quarter, reflecting the reopening. In our Summary of Economic Projections, the median participant projects that real GDP will rise 1.7 percent this year and 2.3 percent next year, somewhat stronger than projected in September.

尽管一些关键的政府数据尚未公布，但现有指标表明，经济活动一直在以适度的速度扩张。消费者支出似乎保持稳定，企业固定资产投资也在持续扩大。相比之下，住房领域的活动依然疲软。联邦政府的临时停摆可能对当前季度的经济活动造成了压力，但随着政府的重新运作，这种影响预计将在下一季度被更高的经济增长所抵消。在我们的经济预测摘要中，预测中值显示，与会者预计实际GDP今年将增长1.7%，明年增长2.3%，略强于9月份的预测。

In the labor market, although official employment data for October and November are delayed, available evidence suggests that both layoffs and hiring remain low, and that both households’ perceptions of job availability and firms’ perceptions of hiring difficulty continue to decline. The official report on the labor market for September, the most recent release, showed that the unemployment rate continued to edge up, reaching 4.4 percent, and that job gains had slowed significantly since earlier in the year. A good part of the slowing likely reflects a decline in the growth of the labor force, due to lower immigration and labor force participation, though labor demand has clearly softened as well. In this less dynamic and somewhat softer labor market, the downside risks to employment appear to have risen in recent months. In our SEP, the median projection of the unemployment rate is 4.5 percent at the end of this year and edges down thereafter.

在劳动力市场方面，尽管10月和11月的官方就业数据尚未公布，但现有证据表明，裁员率和招聘率都保持在低位，家庭对于就业机会的感知和企业对招聘难度的感知都在持续下降。最近一次发布的9月份劳动力市场官方报告显示，失业率继续小幅上升至4.4%，且自今年早些时候以来就业增长已显著放缓。就业增长放缓在很大程度上可能反映了劳动力增长率的下降，这是因为移民减少和劳动力参与率降低，尽管劳动力需求也明显疲软。在这个活力减弱且略显疲软的劳动力市场中，近几个月来就业面临的下行风险似乎有所增加。在我们的经济预测摘要中，对失业率预测的中值是今年年底达到4.5%，此后将逐步下降。

Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022 but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2 percent longer-run goal. Very little data on inflation have been released since our meeting in October. Total PCE prices rose 2.8 percent over the 12 months ending in September and, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices also rose 2.8 percent. These readings are higher than earlier in the year as inflation for goods has picked up, reflecting the effects of tariffs. In contrast, disinflation appears to be continuing for services. Near-term measures of inflation expectations have declined from their peaks earlier in the year, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. Most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2 percent inflation goal. The median projection in the SEP for total PCE inflation is 2.9 percent this year and 2.4 percent next year, a bit lower than the median projection in September. Thereafter, the median falls to 2 percent.

通胀已从2022年年中的高位显著回落，但相对于我们2%的长期目标仍处于偏高水平。自10月会议以来，公布的通胀数据极少。截至9月的12个月内，个人消费支出（PCE）总价格上涨2.8%；若剔除波动较大的食品和能源类别，核心PCE价格也上涨了2.8%。这些读数高于今年早些时候，反映出关税影响下商品通胀有所回升。相比之下，服务业的通胀放缓似乎仍在持续。市场和调查的指标均显示，短期通胀预期指标已从今年早些时候的高点回落。大多数长期通胀预期指标仍与我们的2%通胀目标保持一致。经济预测摘要中对PCE总通胀率的预测中值是，今年2.9%，明年2.4%，略低于9月份的预测中值。此后，预测中值将降至2%。

Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people. At today’s meeting, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.

我们的货币政策行动遵循我们的双重使命，即保障充分就业和维持物价稳定。在今天的会议上，委员会决定将联邦基金利率的目标区间下调25个基点，至3.5%-3.75%。

In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation. There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals. A reasonable base case is that the effects of tariffs on inflation will be relatively short-lived—effectively a one-time shift in the price level. Our obligation is to make sure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem. But with downside risks to employment having risen in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted. Our framework calls for us to take a balanced approach in promoting both sides of our dual mandate. Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to lower our policy rate by 1/4 percentage point.

短期内，通胀风险偏向上行，而就业风险偏向下行——这是一个具有挑战性的局面。在应对就业与通胀目标之间的这种矛盾时，政策没有无风险路径。一个合理的基本情况是，关税对通胀的影响将是相对短暂的——实质上是对物价水平的一次性冲击。我们有义务确保物价水平的一次性上涨不会演变成持续的通胀问题。但随着近几个月就业下行风险增加，风险的平衡已经发生了变化。我们的政策框架要求我们在促进双重使命的两方面的同时采取平衡的方法。因此，我们认为在本次会议上将政策利率下调25个基点是恰当的。

With today’s decision, we have lowered our policy rate 3/4 percentage point over our last three meetings. This further normalization of our policy stance should help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2 percent once the effects of tariffs have passed through. The adjustments to our policy stance since September bring it within a range of plausible estimates of neutral and leave us well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. In our Summary of Economic Projections, FOMC participants wrote down their individual assessments of an appropriate path of the federal funds rate, under what each participant judges to be the most likely scenario for the economy. The median participant projects that the appropriate level of the federal funds rate will be 3.4 percent at the end of 2026 and 3.1 percent at the end of 2027, unchanged from September. As is always the case, these individual forecasts are subject to uncertainty, and they are not a Committee plan or decision. Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and we will make our decisions on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

加上今天的决定，我们在过去三次会议中已将政策利率累计下调75个基点。政策立场的这种进一步正常化应有助于稳定劳动力市场，同时，一旦关税的影响消退，将会使通胀得以恢复向2%回落的趋势。自9月以来，我们对政策立场的调整，已经使其进入中性利率的合理估计区间，这为我们奠定了良好的基础，便于我们根据后续数据、前景演变和风险平衡，来决定未来政策利率进一步调整的幅度和时机。在我们的《经济预测摘要》中，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）成员根据各自判断的最可能的经济情景，记录了他们对联邦基金利率合适路径的个人评估。预测中值显示，联邦基金利率的适当水平在2026年底为3.4%，2027年底为3.1%，与9月份的预测持平。与往常一样，这些个人预测存在不确定性，它们并非委员会的既定计划或决策。货币政策并非一成不变，我们将根据每次会议的情况做出决策。

现在让我谈谈与货币政策实施相关的问题，需要提醒大家的是，这些问题与货币政策立场是分开的，并且对货币政策立场没有影响。鉴于货币市场利率相对于我们设定的管理利率持续收紧，加之其他准备金市场状况指标，委员会判断准备金余额已下降至充裕水平。因此，在今天的会议上，委员会决定开始购买短期国债（主要是国库券），其唯一目的是在一段时间内保持充足的准备金供应。此类证券持有量的增加确保了联邦基金利率保持在目标区间内，这是必要的，因为经济增长会随时间推移导致对我们负债（包括货币和准备金）的需求上升。正如纽约联邦储备银行今天发布的声明中详述的那样，准备金管理购买计划在第一个月将达到400亿美元，并可能在几个月内保持较高水平，以缓解货币市场预期的近期压力。此后，我们预计准备金管理购买的规模将会下降，但实际速度将取决于市场状况。

In our implementation framework, an ample supply of reserves means that the federal funds rate and other short-term interest rates are primarily controlled by the setting of our administered rates rather than day-to-day discretionary interventions in money markets. In this regime, standing repurchase agreement (or repo) operations are a critical tool to ensure that the federal funds rate remains within its target range, even on days of elevated pressures in money markets. Consistent with this view, the Committee eliminated the aggregate limit on standing repo operations. These operations are intended to support monetary policy implementation and smooth market functioning and should be used when economically sensible.

在我们的实施框架中，充裕的准备金供应意味着，联邦基金利率和其他短期利率主要由我们设定的管理利率控制，而非通过货币市场的日常干预所决定。在这种机制下，常备回购协议（或简称回购）操作是确保联邦基金利率即使在货币市场压力较大的日子里也能保持在目标区间内的关键工具。与此观点一致，委员会取消了常备回购操作的总额度上限。这些操作旨在支持货币政策实施和促进市场平稳运行，应在经济上合宜时使用。

To conclude, the Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy—maximum employment and stable prices. We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing inflation sustainably to our 2 percent goal, and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well anchored. Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans. We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country. Everything we do is in service to our public mission. At the Fed, we will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals. Thank you. I look forward to your questions.

总之，美联储被赋予了两项货币政策目标——充分就业和物价稳定。我们始终致力于支持充分就业，使通胀可持续地回归2%的目标，并确保长期通胀预的稳固锚定。能否成功实现这些目标，关系到全体美国民众的利益。我们深知，美联储的每一项行动都会影响着全国各地的社区、家庭和企业。我们所做的一切都是为了履行我们的公共使命。在美联储，我们将竭尽所能实现最大就业和物价稳定的目标。谢谢。接下来欢迎大家提问。

来源

美国联邦储备系统（英文：Federal Reserve System）

全文二维码

编译：孙畅

监制：李婧怡

版面编辑｜周佳敏

责任编辑｜李锦璇、阎奕舟

主编｜朱霜霜